The Strategy

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    Minister Gillard launches the Keep Australia Working Final Report in Werribee, Victoria on Friday 16 October 2009.

    To turn on captions, press the CC button in the video control bar. A text transcript is available.

  • slide 1

    Worst global conditions in 75 years – and significantly worse than Australia’s previous two recessions

    The graph shows annual global GDP growth between 1951 and 2008 with forecasts for 2009, 2010 and 2011. It shows that global GDP growth rates for this time period range mostly between 2 per cent and 6 per cent.

    The graph shows that 2009 is the first year since the Great Depression that the global economy has experienced negative growth. During Australia's previous two recessions, global GDP growth was 0.9% in 1982 and 1.5% in 1991. By comparison, in 2009, global growth is forecast to fall to negative 1.1 per cent. Forecasts for 2010 and 2011 indicate more positive economic conditions with global growth of 3 per cent or more.

  • slide 2

    Australia is the strongest performing of all advanced economies

    The graph shows GDP growth rates for 25 of the world's advanced economies for the year up to the June quarter 2009. It shows that of the countries selected, Australia is the only country with positive GDP growth (of 0.6 per cent). By comparison, the USA, UK and Japan have had negative GDP growth of 4 per cent or more.

    The GDP growth rates of the countries on the graph (from highest to lowest) are: Australia, Greece, Israel, Cyprus, Switzerland, Korea, France, Canada, Singapore, Belgium, Hong Kong, USA, Spain, Austria, Norway, Czech Republic, Netherlands, Slovakia, United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, Sweden, Japan, Taiwan and Slovenia.

  • slide 3

    Stimulus delivers positive growth

    On this graph, actual GDP growth for Australia (that is, with the Government's stimulus package) is compared with Treasury models of what GDP growth for Australia would have been without the impact of the economic stimulus.

    It shows that between the December quarter 2008 and June quarter 2009, actual GDP growth increased from negative 0.7 per cent to positive 0.6 per cent with annual GDP growth of 0.6 per cent over the year to June 2009.

    By comparison, Treasury modelling indicates that without the stimulus package the Australian economy would have experienced negative growth in the December quarter 2008, March quarter 2009 and June quarter 2009, in other words Australia would be in a technical recession.

  • slide 4

    Business confidence higher than pre-crisis levels

    The graph shows an index derived from the National Australia Bank Business Survey that measures Australian business confidence between 1997 and 2009.

    The index shows mostly positive business confidence between 1997-2007 with a notable trough in 2001. This is followed by a significant drop in Australian business confidence during 2008, particularly the latter stages of 2008. However, during 2009, Australian business confidence has rebounded and reached its highest level since October 2003.

  • slide 5

    Australia's unemployment rate is lower than every other major advanced economy - bar one

    The graph shows the unemployment rates for eight major economies.

    As at September 2009, Australia had the second lowest unemployment rate of these countries at 5.7 per cent. By comparison: France has the highest unemployment rate of the selected countries at 9.9 per cent (as at August 2009), followed by the USA (9.8 per cent), Canada (8.7 per cent as at August 2009), Germany (8.2 per cent), United Kingdom (7.9 per cent as at July 2009) and Italy (7.4 per cent as at June 2009). The unemployment rate of Japan is the only selected rate lower than Australia’s at 5.5 per cent (as at August 2009).

  • slide 6

    Stimulus spending

    The graph shows the estimated annual expenditure of the $42 billion Nation Building and Jobs Plan across the areas of tax bonuses, Family and other bonuses, Energy Efficient Homes, Transport and Community Infrastructure, Housing and Education.

    These elements of the stimulus package are graphed showing the planned expenditure between the 2008/2009 and 2011/2012 financial years.

    • The graph shows that the majority of the stimulus is scheduled to be rolled out in the 2008/2009 and 2009/2010 financial years before a winding back of expenditure in 2010/2011 and 2011/2012.
    • The graph shows that Tax bonuses, and Family and other bonuses were the largest area of expenditure in 2008/2009 before education and housing expenditure picks up significantly in 2009/2010.
    • The graph shows that expenditure in the area of education makes up the largest element of stimulus spending.

  • slide 7

    Lesson #1: Unemployment goes up quickly and takes a long time to come down

    The graph shows the trend rate of unemployment for Australia between September 1979 and September 2009. It shows that during Australia's past recessions the unemployment rate has increased quickly and then taken a long time to return to pre-recession levels.

    • During the recession of the early 80s, unemployment rose from 5.4 per cent to 10.4 per cent in only two and a half years and took 6 years to return to near pre-recession levels.
    • Similarly, during the recession of the early 90s, unemployment increased rapidly by a similar amount and took 11 years to return to pre-recession levels.
    • Unemployment continued to fall to record levels until the onset of the Global Recession in late 2008, at which point has begun to rise sharply.
    • As at September 2009, the trend rate of unemployment for Australia is at 5.7 per cent.

  • slide 8

    Lesson #2: People with fewer qualifications or skills are more likely to be unemployed

    The graph shows the rate of unemployment based on educational attainment between 1979 and 2008. The levels of education attainment shown are less than Year 12, Year 12, a vocational qualification (i.e. Certificate or Diploma), and a Bachelor degree or higher qualification.The graph shows that the higher a person's educational attainment the less likely they are to be unemployed.

    For instance over the period, persons with Year 12 as their highest level of attainment have a lower rate of unemployment than persons who had not completed Year 12.

    Likewise persons with a vocational qualification (i.e. Certificate or Diploma) as their highest level of attainment have a lower rate of unemployment than persons with a lower qualification, as were persons with a degree or higher qualification.

    Importantly, these gaps are generally larger during recession. For instance, during the 1990s recession, the unemployment rate among persons who had not completed Year 12 was more than three times higher than those who had a degree or higher qualification.

  • slide 9

    Lesson #3: Young people are particularly vulnerable

    The graph shows the unemployment rate of persons aged 15-19 (not in full time education) and persons aged 20-24 (not in full time education) compared with the trend rate of unemployment for Australia between 1989 and 2009.

    The graph shows that these two groups of people have a higher rate of unemployment than the general population and that this gap gets larger during recession.

    For instance:

    • The unemployment rate for 15-19 year olds (not in full time education) peaked at over 26 per cent in the early 1990s and fell to a low of just over 12 per cent in 2008.
    • The unemployment rate for 20-24 year olds (not in full time education) peaked at over 16 per cent in the early 1990s and fell to a low of just over 5 per cent in 2008.
    • By comparison, the trend rate of unemployment for Australia peaked at just over 10 per cent in the early 1990s and fell to a low of just over 4 per cent in 2007.

  • slide 10

    Lesson #4: Apprenticeship commencements fall during economic downturns

    The graph shows the number of apprenticeship commencements between 1980 and 2009.

    The graph shows that apprenticeship commencements fell sharply during the recession of the early 1990s from 35,000 in 1990 to 20,100 in 1992. The number of commencements did not return to pre-recession levels until 2004 (37,000 commencements).

  • slide 11

    Lesson #5: Some regions are hit harder than others

    The graph shows the highest rate of unemployment by region compared with the lowest rate of unemployment by region based on 12-month moving average between 1988 and 2009. It shows that during recession the gap in unemployment between regions grows significantly.

    For instance:

    • Prior to the 1990s recession the gap between the best and worst performing areas in terms of unemployment rates was 8.6 percentage points. With the onset of the recession, this increased to 14.5 percentage points.
    • By August 2008, this gap had closed to 4.5 percentage points. However, with the effects of the Global Recession this gap had again widened to 7.6 percentage points by August 2009.

Keep Australia Working is the Government's strategy to protect jobs and support business in the current economic environment.

So far we have:

  • Held 21 Keep Australia Working forums in the areas hardest hit by the global recession;
  • Put a Local Employment Co-ordinator in each region to help maximise the impact of the Government's economic stimulus in these regions;
  • Begun the roll-out of the Keep Australia Working Jobs Expos in these areas; and
  • Started work setting up local Keep Australia Working Advisory Committees to develop strategic regional employment plans.

At each forum employers told the Government they needed more assistance to put on an apprentice and that's why we committed to the Apprentice Kickstart program -- tripling the bonus employers receive if they put on a young apprentice this summer from $1,500 to $4,850.

Keep Australia Working Report:

The Keep Australia Working Final Report details Australia's current employment outlook, actions already taken and describes initiatives to address challenges of the future as the economy recovers.

In order to support outcomes now and build long term capacity, major initiatives as part of this report to build job and training opportunities include:

  • a new Apprentice Kickstart Package to accelerate the take-up of apprenticeships in order to support the availability of trade skills in crucial sectors of the economy;
  • a second round of the Local Jobs Stream of the Jobs Fund, targeted specifically at green jobs to support the transition to the economy of the future;
  • a second round of the Get Communities Working Stream of the Jobs Fund to give priority to intermediate labour market models of social enterprise;
  • setting up an Office of Employment Co-ordination to build further opportunities to connect job seekers with employment opportunities;
  • expanding Keep Australia Working financial information seminars and job expos; and
  • improving information for people and organisations affected by the global recession.

The report was prepared by the Minister for Employment Participation, Senator Mark Arbib, and the Parliamentary Secretary for Employment, Jason Clare.

The Minister for Employment and Workplace Relations, Julia Gillard, received the Keep Australia Working Final Report on Friday, 16 October 2009.

The Keep Australia Working interim report was released on 8 July.